Wednesday, 29 August 2007

Week 4: So many choices...

This weekend has delivered several options for predictable home wins:
  • Liverpool v Derby
  • Man Utd v Sunderland
  • Newcastle v Wigan
  • Arsenal v Portsmouth
All 4 fixtures look likely, but which one to actually put my money on is another matter.

The Man Utd fixture has the extra spice of being Roy Keane's return to Old Trafford. I can't see Sunderland getting a draw but I don't want to risk betting against Keane and his fired-up team for this match.

Newcastle have started well and I expect them to grow under Sam Allardyce. However, they are not yet consistent enough for me to bet on. Plus of course, a winning goal from Titus Bramble would be the romantic result here. He took so much stick while at Newcastle, I imagine he'll be in the box for every free-kick and corner trying to get some revenge!

This leaves me with the choice between the Arsenal and Liverpool fixtures.

Arsenal and Liverpool are both very consistent winners at home, with Liverpool just edging it last season. They both have midweek european matches, however both squads are strong enough to cope.

The sides they face are Portsmouth and Derby. Derby, without a win so far, got a draw at Portsmouth on the opening day. Portsmouth have made a good start to the season and are improving. They drew with Man Utd and played well against Chelsea last weekend.

In midweek Derby were beaten by lowly Blackpool in the Carling Cup whereas Portsmouth beat Leeds 3-0. This could lower morale in Derby and they will struggle to pick themselves up for the trip to Anfield. Portsmouth could well be upbeat and may spring a surprise on Arsenal.

And so I will bet on Liverpool to beat Derby. 15% this time means a £16.13 bet.

Tuesday, 28 August 2007

Week 3: Two correct bets out of two so far!

Chelsea's win adds another £3.64 to my profits!

Two correct results out of two has got me off to a great start this season, I'm certainly glad that I didn't chose to back Man Utd, as their form could have cost me a lot of money.

I also feel justified in only placing a 10% bet this weekend, as Chelsea struggled to beat Portsmouth and only won by the odd goal.

Next week looks like a bumper set of predictable results. Liverpool, Man Utd and Newcastle are all playing teams from the other end of the table. I will have to have a long think about them before deciding on which to back though.

New balance: £107.54

Thursday, 23 August 2007

Week 3: Bet placed this time

Last week I chose not to bet, but the fixtures I had my eye on still came true, so I am eager to place a bet this weekend.

With Tottenham having a poor away record I expect them to lose at Old Trafford this weekend, however they are too good a team to bet against because they always have a chance of getting a draw, plus they are desperate for points following this week's managerial saga.

So it’s boring boring Chelsea for me. I can’t see Harry Redknapp’s Portsmouth getting a point at Stamford Bridge this weekend.

Portsmouth missed out on signing Yakubu this week which could have changed my mind on backing them.

I hope former David Nugent, who was to be leaving Portsmouth after only a month, doesn't spoil my weekend by proving his doubters wrong and getting a goal or two!

I will only bet 10% rather than my usual 15%, to offset the added risk from a strong Portsmouth side. They usually get a few good results away from home each season and finished high up the table last year.

£10.39 on a Chelsea home win.

Monday, 20 August 2007

Week 2: Opportunities Missed!

Last weekend virtually every prediction I made came true. Unfortunately I chose not to put any money on any of them.

The Manchester derby and Liverpool v Chelsea proved to be bad choices with City winning and the others playing out a draw, and the Tottenham match finished 4-0 to Spurs, after I said that they would probably thump Derby.

Another match which I considered, Rangers v Falkirk also proved to be very one sided - Rangers won 7-2!

Oh well.

At least I didn't lose anything!

Balance... still the same: £103.90

Thursday, 16 August 2007

Week 2: Too tough to call

No obvious mid week fixtures and a poor set of matches for the weekend leave me considering not making any bets at all.

Liverpool and Chelsea play each other, Arsenal are away at Blackburn and Manchester Utd take on City in the Manchester derby.

This only leaves Tottenham, who play Derby County, as a team for me to back. I usually don’t have faith in Spurs, however after 2 early defeats they desperately need a good performance in front of their home fans to get their season up and running.

I expect them to beat Derby but the rules I set out at the beginning state that I can’t bet on a team with poor form even if it is this early in the season.

In Scotland, the fixtures are slightly better with Hearts playing Gretna and Rangers v Falkirk, however neither are good enough to risk a bet.

I’m going to have to wait until next week to have another flutter.

Monday, 13 August 2007

Week 1: Results

Woohoo! - A great start to the season and a winning start to the project!

Last week’s bet took a lot of thinking about, but luckily I chose to put my money on Chelsea rather than Man Utd, as the current champions only managed a draw at home to Reading.

I was shocked to see Birmingham take the lead at Stamford Bridge but goals from Pizzaro, Malouda and Essien were enough to give Chelsea the 3 points.

I got an odds ratio slightly better than 1/4 for a Chelsea win and so got £3.90 on my bet of £15.

New balance £103.90

Thursday, 9 August 2007

Week 1: Premiership Season Begins

Balance: £100

I’m getting nervous now as I look at the first set of fixtures. I know that if I get a match wrong this early, it will have a big affect on my earnings overall. Losing money early will take a lot of time to win back.

Ideally I wouldn’t bet on the first round of matches, as I’d like some time to see which teams are strongest this year.

However, there are 3 matches that look promising in week 1. With 3 to choose from, and as I want to get the season underway, I will definitely put a bet on this week.

The first is Arsenal versus Fulham at the Emirates on Sunday. Even after the sale of Thierry Henry, Arsenal still have a strong side and should overcome Fulham with ease.

Arsenal won as many matches as Chelsea last season and Fulham managed only 1 win away from home. However, it may take a while for Da Silva and Van Persie to get used to each other.

Chelsea didn’t lose at home at all last year but drew 7 matches, they will be looking for a decent start to the campaign to show Man Utd that they intend to win the title back. This makes it a very tough match for Birmingham as it is their first match back in the premiership.

Looking at the away side, Birmingham had a poor defence when they were relegated 2 seasons ago, and now that they are without Matthew Upson, I will assume it has not improved. I can’t see them surprising Chelsea here.

The third match to consider is Man Utd v Reading – also on Sunday. Reading lost 9 matches away from home last year which is not particularly good, however they did prove to be tricky opponents, causing a few some surprises and eventually finishing 8th.

I think Reading have the determination to possibly get a draw at Old Trafford and Arsenal may take a little while to get used to not having Henry.

So, on that basis I’ll bet £15 on Chelsea to beat Birmingham and stick with only 1 match on the opening weekend.

Fingers crossed.