Saturday, 16 August 2008

New Premier League Season Begins! 2008 / 2009

Wow. What an excellent summer.

The European championships, even without England were absolutely thrilling, and it was the team that played the best football that eventually grabbed the trophy! Worthy winners Spain destroying the hapless Germany in the final!

The Olympics are in full swing too, and have been excellent so far. Most of the major events are still to come and there is a chance that Great Britain can bash the Ozzies, which would be awesome.

Distractions apart though, the bread and butter of sport in the UK is the football league season. It is 96 days since Man Utd lifted their 10th Premier league title and everyone from players to fans has been waiting for it all to begin again.

Last weekend the football league kicked off in style with unexpected results for teams such as Doncaster, Sheffield Wednesday and Preston North End, and I am certain there will be some surprise results in the Premiership this afternoon too!

On the betting front, I have yet to decide whether my rules are adequate for the forthcoming season. Luckily I had no intention of making any bets in the first couple of weeks anyway. I want to let a couple of results roll in before I start putting my money where my mouth is.

If I were to bet, I am sure Arsenal v West Brom will result in a home win, but first day nerves are not something I want to be cursing later on.

Man Utd v Newcastle also looks like a home banker, but I know someone who would love it if it went the other way!

I hope there are a couple of bankers ready for me when I get back on it, what date is Man Utd v Hull City?

Sunday, 11 May 2008

Season ends on a high - Man Utd Victory!

Alex Ferguson's 10th premier league title and win over Wigan means I add £2.60 to the account on the final day.

Final balance £107.51

In the end, I succeeded in my goal to make more than my ISA. A 7.5% return is slightly better than the 6% offered in most banks, however, it could have been much more.

On two occasions I had a surplus of more than £25 meaning a 25% return on my investment. Maybe I should have a look at how I manage my money so that I can take stock when I get to such levels in the future.

Saturday, 10 May 2008

Man Utd and Chelsea go for the Premier League title!

Since mid April this blog has been taking a breather. The loss of £18.50 when Chelsea drew with Wigan caused a lot of disappointment and made me realise that it was going to be very difficult to beat my target of a 6% return over the year.

Currntly at 4.5%, I think it would be a shame to not even try to get over the 6% tagrget with a bet on the final league games of the season.

Looking at the Premiership, the most obvious games are Chelsea v Bolton and Man Utd v Wigan.

Although I don't usually bet on away games, I can't see a problem with this one, as Man Utd need a win to gurantee them the Premier League title. Chelsea too need a win and face Bolton at Stamford Bridge.

Wigan are also safe from the drop, however Bolton could get relegated if they concede a lot of goals against Chelsea while the teams around them get good results. Therefore I expect bolton to defend doggedly.

Man Utd have odds of 1/4 to beat Wigan. But it will be my first ever bet on an away side.

I am going to put £10 on a Man Utd win and hope for the best!

Monday, 14 April 2008

Disaster - and so close to the end of the season!

£123.41 - £18.50 = £104.91

What are Chelsea thinking? Do they realise that they have messed up their title chances and in the process, made my project drop to a measly 4.9% return?

There are now 4 rounds of premiership matches to go before the end of the season. I am probably going to have to win at least 2 more bets to take me comfortably above the 6% return an ISA would have provided.

Arsenal play Reading on Saturday. maybe that will be the start of it?

Thursday, 10 April 2008

31 - Finally! A game to bet on

After what seems like an age, the project now has a game set firmly in it's sights.

Chelsea to beat Wigan. Monday night. Plenty of time to recover after the Champions league. Only slight issue is the Everton game 3 days after.

But Avram wouldn't risk losing this one when he needs to keep up the pressure on Man Utd!

I'll bet 15%, which means £18.50 on a home win and a £4.40 profit if it comes in.

Come on you blues!

Saturday, 5 April 2008

30 - Tough choice again!

Rather than put money on a predictable football match, this week I am going to bet my whole account on the Grand National!

Not really, but in some ways I could, because at least I would have bet to make. Two weeks without is very frustrating!

This weekend is another tough week for predictions. I regretted not betting on Man Utd when they ended up thrashing Villa comfortably, so am eager to place a bet this time.

This weekend I can see Villa bouncing back to beat Bolton and Newcastle getting 3 points v Reading, however, I can't go as far to say that they are certainties. Man Utd are in irrepressible form, but are away from home at the Riverside in Middlesbrough and also have just had a tough game against Roma in midweek.

I will have to further consider my options before 3pm and post what I have decided.

Thursday, 3 April 2008

29 - Man Utd

After watching the performance of Man Utd against Villa I take back everything I said about there being 'nothing clear cut'.

On this kind of form, betting on the Red Devils is an assured win, no matter who they are playing.

If they can keep playing like that, this project will find it very easy to find a match to bet on each weekend.

Saturday, 29 March 2008

29 - Nothing Clear Cut

This week also shows little promise on the betting front. I see my main options are Man Utd v Villa, Chelsea v Middlesbrough and West Brom v Colchester.

Although Villa have been on a downer recently, losing to Sunderland last weekend. But they are still in 7th place and so realistically I cannot bet on them to lose, no matter how good Man Utd are at the moment.

Beating Middlesbrough should be a simple task for Chelsea, but then again, Arsenal probably though the same thing a couple of weeks ago. That day Boro grabbed a point and so I don't feel comfortable with this game either.

That only leaves West Brom. The Baggies drew their last game at Charlton and were beaten heavily by Leicester the week before. However, they face a Colchester side without a win in 9 games. Surely this will allow West Brom to get their promotion hopes back on track?

Unfortunately it is not certain enough for me. I am going to have to have a 2nd week without a bet.

Very frustrating.

Saturday, 22 March 2008

28 - No easy matches

Unfortunately, I am not going to be able to put a bet on this weekend as I cannot find a match which will gurantee a victory.

I think my best option would be Aston Villa versus Sunderland, but Villa have not won in their last 3 league matches and were beaten convincingly by Portsmouth last time out.

I did consider a wager on Aldershot v Altrincham, but I do not know enough about the Blue Sky Premier to risk my money.

It is a shame to not bet, but wth the end of the season approaching I do not really want to risk my winnings on something which I am not sure about. A return of 23.4% so far is encouraging and to throw it all away now would be a disaster for the project.

Thursday, 20 March 2008

27 - Red Devils beat the Trotters

Another win for Man Utd keeps them top of the pile going into a tough week for the big sides. It also means another £2.06 is added to my account.

New balance is £123.41

On Sunday the top for side play each other and so the chances of betting on a Premier league match is unlikely. I will take a look at the fixture lists and report back when I have made my decision.

Tuesday, 18 March 2008

26 - Man U v Bolton

Manchester United's win against Derby was not convincing but Alex Ferguson's rallying call in the newspapers stated that he did not want so many chances to be passed up again.

Although such a call to action is usually a good sign that the next side to meet them will take a beating, the Reds face Liverpool at the weekend and so may not have a full strength team to do so.

Alex Ferguson cannot afford to miss out on the 3 points here though and for this reason I will still wager 10% on the match. Plus at Old Trafford, the Red Devils can usually be relied upon to grab the 3 points.

£12.13 on a Manchester Utd win!

Thursday, 13 March 2008

26 - Chelsea thumb Derby County

My £17.85 bet on a Chelsea has added £2.33 to the account.

New balance: £121.35

Next week, the fixtures look particularly tasty. Man U v Bolton, Liverpool v Reading and Arsenal v Middlesbrough are surely all home bankers?

Arsenal can possibly be discounted simply for not beating Wigan last weekend, but the other two will be simple wins.

I think my favourite of the two is Man Utd. Simply because Liverpool are more likely to have a hanogver from the European games after their fine win in Milan against Inter.

Man U play Derby on Saturday then face Bolton on Wednesday. To be honest, a punt on both of these matches should be safe, however, my rules do state that I won't bet on away games.

Oh well. One will have to be enough.

Friday, 7 March 2008

26 - The wait until Wednesday

This weekend's fixtures throw up a lot of possible choices, but none that really take my fancy.

Liverpool should thrash Newcastle, but in football a bad run often comes to an end at an unlikely source.

The Scouse/Geordie games were always very open when Kevin Keegan was at St. James Park last time around, and all the neutral fans will be hoping that this is no different.

Of course, the more open the game is, the more likely that Newcastle could nick a point and so I will not be risking my money on it.

I also expect easy wins for Blackburn and Arsenal, but not enough for me to part with my cash.

The obvious choice for this round of games is actually on Wednesday evening, with Chelsea travelling to the midlands to play Derby. I can't see his game going any other way than a home win. Chelsea returned to form last weekend at West Ham and Derby should offer little resistance.

£17.85 on a Chelsea win will give me a £2.33 return if successful.

Come on you blues!

Tuesday, 4 March 2008

25 - Rangers increase my total

An early scare for Rangers saw them go 1-0 down to Aberdeen but eventually their quality shone through for a 3-1 victory.

The win means a £2.44 profit for my project which brings my total to the heady heights of £119.02.

Arsenal could only manage a draw with Aston Villa which means they have now gone 4 games without a win (in all competetions).

Manchester United on the other hand have won all 3 of their premier league matches since being beaten in the Manchester derby. And in London, Chelsea sent a message out to the rest of the league with a 4-0 thrashing of West Ham at Upton park.

It means that I will be closely watching the Reds and Blues rather then the Gunners in the coming weeks. I don't think at the moment an Arsenal win can be relied upon.

Saturday, 1 March 2008

25 - Rangers to beat the Dons

After looking into the fixture between Rangers and Aberdeen I really can't see the Dons getting anything out of it.

They have lost their last 3 away matches in the league whereas Rangers have won 10 league matches on the spin.

It certainly seems as though Rangers will have it all their own way.

An £11.60 bet will return £2.44 if successful.

Come on you Gers!

Friday, 29 February 2008

25 - Back to business

An unplanned week off means that my account remains in a sturdy position.

Current balance: £116.58.

This weeks premier league fixtures show no promise at all. The best of the home fixtures are probably Arsenal to beat Villa and Liverpool to beat West Ham on Monday. However, neither of these seem to be certainties.

Unfortunately the other leagues don't seem to offer much else to wager on either.

My options are probably going to be limited to Rangers turning over Aberdeen in the Scottish premier and Peterborough v Bury in League two, which could also be a one sided affair too.

Saturday, 9 February 2008

23 - Profit of £6

Everton's 1-0 win over Reading kept them in 4th place and pushed the royals into the relegation zone. Even more important than that, it gave my account a much needed boost at take the total to £116.58.

The better odds meant that this was one of the best wins I have had so far, especially when the bet made was only just over £10.

Of the other matches which I considered, Rangers comfortably beat Falkirk but Peterborough only managed a no score draw against Wrexham.

The most comprehensive win was for Aston Villa. The 4-1 result means that poor old Kevin Keegan will have to continue to wait for his first Premier League win.

23 - Wrexham's form is too good

Peterborough v Wrexham was initially my choice, but the welsh side's form has been much improved of late and they may put a dent in Peterborough's promotion hopes.

Which means that the most easy to predict match this weekend is Everton v Reading.

The Toffee's have stormed up into 4th place and Reading haven't won for 9 games in all competitions. Everton have won their last 4 home games too, so I feel confident enough.

My first worry is that I usually bet on team's such as Manchester United and Arsenal, but I am going to have to believe in the system and keep my fingers crossed.

The other concern is that Yakubu is not playing and for this reason alone I will only bet 10% of the account. Let's hope Cahill and Johnson can do the business.

£10.58 on some cheer from the blue half of Merseyside (odds of 1.6 will mean a £6 profit if sucessful).

Thursday, 7 February 2008

22 - Paid Off

So, my experiment with Liverpool paid off. The match was a relatively easy win for the Reds however in the first half they played poorly and the match was very boring. Luckily they perked up in the second and beat Sunderland 3-0.

My account now stands at: £105.84

This weekend the Toffees of Everton look likely to win against poor old Reading but I am actually more interested in the Manchester derby.

Man Utd are in dominating form, have very few injuries and come up against a City side who have slipped down the table recently. Also, City always struggle against the top 4 sides. With the memories of Munich also affecting this game I fancy Utd to win comfortably, however my rules do state that I shouldn't bet on derby matches.

In other leagues, I expect Rangers to beat Falkirk and also Peterborough will most probably take 3 points at Wrexham.

Must decide whether a Manchester derby is too risky!

Saturday, 2 February 2008

22 - Liverpool Experiment

A problem with my betting system seems to be that some of the absolutely certain fixtures end in a strange result due, I think, to complacency in the home side. This has happened in at least 3 of the 4 matches which have gone against me this season.

For this reason I find this weekend's Liverpool match v Sunderland very actractive and could actually be more likely to end in a Liverpool win because of Liverpool's poor recent form and their determination to turn it around.

Usually, poor recent results would stop me betting on the Reds but this weekend I will put a small bet on for a win to try to prove my point. £5 at odds of 1.35 will give me a profit of £1.75.

This alerts me to the odds also being better as Liverpool have not been in the best form of late.

Lt's hope the experiment pays off.

Thursday, 31 January 2008

21- Blues beat the Royals

A win for Chelsea ups my account by £3.10 and puts it firmly back in the black.

New balance: 104.09

Unfortunately, the best bet this weekend is Liverpool v Sunderland, however Liverpool's current form is less than spectaculor.

The other leagues also look tough to predict, but I will have a closer look today. Hopefully I won't have to wait until next week to bet again.

Wednesday, 30 January 2008

21 - Keegan under pressure already?

Last night Newcastle took another thrashing at the hands of Arsenal. It seems a shame that Kevin Keegan has now gone 3 games without a win in his new job, however two consecutive meetings with Arsenal at the Emirates is not anyone's idea of an easy start.

On the face of the two results it must be disappointing to get beaten by the same scoreline again as you'd expect some tactical knowledge gained in the first meeting to shine through.

Tonight, as expected, I will bet on a Chelsea win against Reading. I think 10% of the account is a fair wager as Reading are not a bad side. They do struggle away from home though and against an in-form Chelsea side I expect them to be beaten convincingly.

£10.09 on a blues win.

Looking ahead, I hope that Liverpool can stop fighting amongst themselves long enough to put in a good performance against West Ham tonight which will set them up for a win against lowly Sunderland at the weekend.

Friday, 25 January 2008

FA Cup Week

This weekend is the 4th round of the FA Cup.

My rules state that I don't bet on cup games, so I will be taking a couple of days off from betting, however I will be watching several matches as the BBC has dotted them throughout the weekend.

Mansfield v Middlesbrough looks an excellent tie and could be swayed by the strong winds and later Chelsea visit Wigan.

I will also be staying up on Saturday night to find out how Havant and Waterlooville got on against Liverpool. I really hope they get a goal to enjoy their day at Anfield.

My next match betting-wise could well be the Chelsea v Reading game on Wednesday. But in the mean time I will have a more thorough look at the fixtures and see if there are any other alternatives.

Sunday, 20 January 2008

20 - Back on track


A steady win for Celtic nets me £1.90.

New balance is £100.99!

Back in profit, so it has all been worthwhile!

Next weekend is the FA Cup, so there may be a shortage of matches, however a fixture that I would like to bet on is the Rangers v East Stirling cup tie.

However I usually don't bet on cup ties.

Plus, I've just checked the odds and I would need to bet my house on it to get any kind of return. Possibly one to avoid then (1/33).

Saturday, 19 January 2008

20 - Celtic

Ok, this is very very last minute, but looking over the recent fixtures the Celtic v Kilmarnock match seems a certain choice.

Celtic have won their last three and Kilmarnock's only point in their last 3 was a point against struggling Hearts.

A 10% bet will get my account back in the black. Hopefully.

Tuesday, 15 January 2008

20 - Bouncing back

This week is all about bouncing back from my defeats and getting the project back in the black.

I am inclined to go more gung-ho in my approach, however that would be against my rules and although I have had two demoralising results recently I still believe the rules will work if given enough time.

Matches this weekend that interest me are Celtic v Kilmarnock, Swansea v Port Vale and Carlisle v Crewe.

Something that I am considering is betting on two matches per week when possible, to spread the risk of my wagers.

Of course, I would need to find two matches that meet my criteria, but it is certainly an option to try to stop the disappointment of large losses.

Saturday, 12 January 2008

19 - If only I had bet on Man Utd

A second loss on the spin means my project has been sent back to square one.

Arsenal's unlikely and possibly undeserved draw means my account is back to around the £100 mark. Where I was in August.

Unfortunately I even mentioned the Man Utd v Newcastle match stating that I wouldn't bet on a side who have recently changed their manager. However Newcastle fell apart and conceded 6 goals in the 2nd half at Old Trafford.

I feel as though both Arsenal today and Dundee Utd at Christmas both played with a lot of complacency and did not give their all. I will take some time to think about the choices I made in these games and see if there is any way to avoid matches such as this in the future.

New balance £99.09

19 - Arsenal it is

As expected, I will bet on Arsenal today in their match against Birmingham City.

Arsenal have several players out including Van Persie, Eboue, Song and Toure however they have a lot of strength in depth and I'm sure they will triumph this afternoon.

I will bet 15% of the account which means a £17.48 wager.

After my loss during the Christmas period this means that anything but an Arsenal win will see me drop below my initial outlay. Not something I would want, after playing for 5 months!

I have confidence in Arsenal though and a win will add £3.85 to my account.

Wednesday, 9 January 2008

19 - The Premiership is back this weekend, for everyone apart from Big Sam

Newcastle's idea to sack Sam Allardyce may be a little soon and a tad crazy, but it will not affect this project as the Magpies haven't consistently won games since 1997, and I don't bet on inconsistent teams.

They certainly aren't a bad side though so I'll not be risking my money on a Man Utd win this Saturday because a change in management can often turnaround a club's season.

Fortunately, the premiership's other main title contenders, Arsenal, have a match-up with lowly Birmingham City.

Birmingham recently lost to League One side Huddersfield in the FA Cup and were beaten by Man Utd last weekend. Over Christmas they did defeat Middlesbrough convincingly but normal service was resumed against fellow strugglers Fulham as they only managed a draw at home.

Arsenal on the other hand are awesome at home. They have not lost at the Emirates this season and are likely to dominate the game.

I will wait until after tonight's Carling Cup semi-final before placing my bet in case several key players get injured. But I am pretty sure it will be the one I go for.

Wednesday, 2 January 2008

18 - Gretna victory ends my winning streak

I apologise for the lack of posts over the last week, a very busy Christmas has meant I have struggled to find the time to keep the blog up to date. I am now back home after the festivities and will be updating regularly again.

While away, I have been keeping an eye on the fixtures, however none have stood out as certainties and as you will have noticed, my last bet was a £13 wager on Dundee Utd to beat Gretna, who somehow managed to win 2-1. The loss put a dent in my account but I am still in the black and will endeavor to keep my choices in check over the next couple of weeks to ensure no more slip ups occur.

This evening's match between Liverpool v Wigan looked as tempting as anything I have seen for over Christmas, however I was aware of the unusual results which have been thrown up recently, including the Man Utd defeat to West Ham, and my doubts were justified when Wigan snatched a point in the dying moments of the game through Titus Bramble.

This weekend Arsenal meet Birmingham at the Emirates, however Birmingham only lost 1-0 at Man Utd which could mean their away form is improving. I will do some research before making my final decision as 2 defeats in succession would be disastrous.

New balance is £116.57