Week 8: Opportunities missed (2)

After the disaster last week from Chelsea drawing against Fulham I did not find any time at all to make bets this week as I have been organising a trip abroad.

Unfortunately, the likely matches (Man U v Wigan & Arseanl v Sunderland) both went to form, meaning I could have instantly retruned to winning ways.

If there is a silverlining, at least I did not lose any money this weekend!

I hope for similarly easy matches to predict on my return.

Balance, still £104.4

Week 3: Two correct bets out of two so far!

Chelsea's win adds another £3.64 to my profits!

Two correct results out of two has got me off to a great start this season, I'm certainly glad that I didn't chose to back Man Utd, as their form could have cost me a lot of money.

I also feel justified in only placing a 10% bet this weekend, as Chelsea struggled to beat Portsmouth and only won by the odd goal.

Next week looks like a bumper set of predictable results. Liverpool, Man Utd and Newcastle are all playing teams from the other end of the table. I will have to have a long think about them before deciding on which to back though.

New balance: £107.54

Week 3: Bet placed this time

Last week I chose not to bet, but the fixtures I had my eye on still came true, so I am eager to place a bet this weekend.

With Tottenham having a poor away record I expect them to lose at Old Trafford this weekend, however they are too good a team to bet against because they always have a chance of getting a draw, plus they are desperate for points following this week's managerial saga.

So it’s boring boring Chelsea for me. I can’t see Harry Redknapp’s Portsmouth getting a point at Stamford Bridge this weekend.

Portsmouth missed out on signing Yakubu this week which could have changed my mind on backing them.

I hope former David Nugent, who was to be leaving Portsmouth after only a month, doesn't spoil my weekend by proving his doubters wrong and getting a goal or two!

I will only bet 10% rather than my usual 15%, to offset the added risk from a strong Portsmouth side. They usually get a few good results away from home each season and finished high up the table last year.

£10.39 on a Chelsea home win.

Week 1: Results

Woohoo! - A great start to the season and a winning start to the project!

Last week’s bet took a lot of thinking about, but luckily I chose to put my money on Chelsea rather than Man Utd, as the current champions only managed a draw at home to Reading.

I was shocked to see Birmingham take the lead at Stamford Bridge but goals from Pizzaro, Malouda and Essien were enough to give Chelsea the 3 points.

I got an odds ratio slightly better than 1/4 for a Chelsea win and so got £3.90 on my bet of £15.

New balance £103.90

Week 1: Premiership Season Begins

Balance: £100

I’m getting nervous now as I look at the first set of fixtures. I know that if I get a match wrong this early, it will have a big affect on my earnings overall. Losing money early will take a lot of time to win back.

Ideally I wouldn’t bet on the first round of matches, as I’d like some time to see which teams are strongest this year.

However, there are 3 matches that look promising in week 1. With 3 to choose from, and as I want to get the season underway, I will definitely put a bet on this week.

The first is Arsenal versus Fulham at the Emirates on Sunday. Even after the sale of Thierry Henry, Arsenal still have a strong side and should overcome Fulham with ease.

Arsenal won as many matches as Chelsea last season and Fulham managed only 1 win away from home. However, it may take a while for Da Silva and Van Persie to get used to each other.

Chelsea didn’t lose at home at all last year but drew 7 matches, they will be looking for a decent start to the campaign to show Man Utd that they intend to win the title back. This makes it a very tough match for Birmingham as it is their first match back in the premiership.

Looking at the away side, Birmingham had a poor defence when they were relegated 2 seasons ago, and now that they are without Matthew Upson, I will assume it has not improved. I can’t see them surprising Chelsea here.

The third match to consider is Man Utd v Reading – also on Sunday. Reading lost 9 matches away from home last year which is not particularly good, however they did prove to be tricky opponents, causing a few some surprises and eventually finishing 8th.

I think Reading have the determination to possibly get a draw at Old Trafford and Arsenal may take a little while to get used to not having Henry.

So, on that basis I’ll bet £15 on Chelsea to beat Birmingham and stick with only 1 match on the opening weekend.

Fingers crossed.

Initial Outlay

If this project is successful, I want to make a decent return. However, if it all goes wrong, I don’t want to be in danger of losing my house.

I have decided that £100 is a good starting point as I can afford it and the earnings and profit will be easily to calculate.

How I will make the bets

Each bet will be 'to win'. So if the team I choses loses or if the match is a draw, I lose my stake.

I expect most of the bets will be made online with the tax pre-paid, so I should know the amount I will win as soon as I make the bet.

I will try to shop around for the best odds, but ultimately I will stick to the betting sites that I find easiest to use.

The Rules

Last year I bet some very small amounts on a few matches but eventually finished the year with less money. However, it helped me prepare my rules for this year.

Hopefully, if I follow these rules closer I will be more successful.

The rules which I have created are:

1. Only bet on home teams
2. Only bet on home teams who usually win at home
   
3. Only bet on matches where the away team is usually poor away from home
   
4. Don't bet on home teams who may be ‘resting’ players for upcoming matches
5. Only bet on matches which I have a good knowledge of the teams and the league
6. Bet around 10% of my account total on each chosen match
7. Try not to bet on more than 2 matches in a weekend

Hopefully, the rules will ensure that I win virtually every time. But, as the bookmakers know this too, I am going to get very poor odds.

Also, with my 10% rule, if I get a few poor results I may get into trouble very quickly.

Introduction

Once my debts from University were paid off I began paying into a Mini-Cash ISA as it gives a decent rate of interest (5%) and the returns are tax free.

However, 5% per year does not seem like a very good return to me, so I started to look at other ways to increase my return.

Betting on football matches would seem to be a much worse idea than keeping my money safe with a bank, however the returns are larger, if you get the predictions right!

So the ideal situation would be to get a better return than an ISA while only betting on matches which you can be certain of the outcome.

Of course, you cannot ever be certain of a football result, but this can be countered by betting on lots of matches getting them right almost all of the time.