Week 7: Result - Disaster

The results had all been positive, the system seemed to good to be true, it was working.

But then I put a large stake on Chelsea to beat Fulham, and so lost £11.59 of my hard earned cash.

Looking back, I really should have known not to bet on it. Local derbies and betting on teams that have recently changed manager should be added to the rules as matches to steer clear of.

What I also failed to notice was that Chelsea had gone 3 matches without a win in the Premiership. A loss to Manu Utd was preceded by a draw with Man City and a further defeat at Aston Villa.

One of the factors I remember considering as I made my decision was that I had read that Chelsea had played some of their best football versus Man Utd.

Looking back, I realise the quote came from Avram Grant. Which leads me to add another rule to my system: 'Never trust the comments made by the team's manager'.

I must ensure that I remember the lessons learnt here, as the odds I bet on mean that I cannot afford many more mistakes.

New balance: £104.4

Week 7: Away wins not allowed, unfortunately!

The premiership has a few predictable football matches this weekend, however most have the strong side away from home. Wigan v Liverpool and Birmingham v Man Utd will surely end up with 3 points to the visiting side, however, betting on away teams is against my rules.

This leaves me with the Chelsea v Fulham derby match, which is not ideal.

My reasoning for still finding this bet attractive is that Fulham are not good away from home and Chelsea will be eager to get back to winning ways after the loss to Man Utd last weekend. At home, even after Jose Mourinho's departure, Chelsea will be a very strong side and Fulham will struggle to cope.

Purely because it is a derby match, I will only bet 10% of the account on the game.

Meaning I will put £11.59 on a Chelsea win.