Monday, 29 October 2007

Week 11: Poor Options

Unfortunately, my strict rules mean that I am struggling to find a team to bet on this weekend.

The major Premier League sides are either playing each other (Man Utd v Arsenal), or playing away from home (Liverpool and Chelsea). Both of these conditions mean that I shouldn't risk my money on them.

That said, Wigan's record against the top sides is appalling and I can't see them managing to hold on for a point versus Chelsea, even at home. They have also lost their last 5 matches compared to Chelsea's thrashing of high flying Man City last Saturday.

I fully expect Aston Villa to take 3 points off lowly Derby County too, however, their form is not good enough for me to consider it a predictable match, even when up against the dismal rams.

Looking into the football league, Leeds Utd are on fire but too bad they are playing away this weekend, so I have had to take a look at the Scottish fixtures.

The only game that looks promising is Rangers v Inverness Cale Thistle. Rangers will be looking to keep up with Celtic at the top and Inverness have already struggled against the top sides with heavy losses against the old firm this season.

The odds will be much better for Chelsea v Wigan, but I will stick to the rules I set out at the beginning and bet on the easy win for Rangers.

I'll bet the full 15% this week which means a £16.65 bet.

Sunday, 28 October 2007

Week 10: Result

Man Utd beat Middlesbrough yesterday, which is great news for my project, however, the bookies seemed to see it coming and so I was only able to bet at low odds.

Unfortunately, as Middlesbrough have pulled off some surprising results against top teams over the last few years I wagered 10% rather than my usual 15%, which also hampered this weekend's profits. Together, these 2 factors meant I only made £2.39 on the match.

However, a win still sends the account balance in the right direction!

New balance 111.02

Thursday, 25 October 2007

Week 10: Martin Jol Out

Martin Jol left spurs last night after a dismal start to the season for his Spurs team. Tottenham looked like a good side last year and invested heavily in the summer, so it has been a surprise to everyone that they have struggled so much.

However the managerial changes at White Hart Lane make little difference to this project as they are not a side that has enough consistency to risk money on.

This weekend the surprise package so far, Manchester City, travel to Stamford Bridge to play Chelsea and then Liverpool and Arsenal meet at Anfield in an exciting fixture on Sunday.

The only match that looks predictable is the Man Utd vs Middlesbrough game on Saturday. Man Utd have won 4 out of 5 at home and Middlesbrough have lost 4 out of 5 away so far with their win being at Fulham.

However, because Man Utd played in europe this week and Middlesbrough have a reputation for raising their game against the top sides I am only going to bet 10% of my account. Meaning £10.86 on a home win.

If Rooney can carry on scoring as he has in the last few games, this should be an easy win.

Week 9: Result

Another crazy week has meant this results post is long overdue.

Luckily though this post has a successful result to report. The Arsenal v Bolton game last weekend went exactly as planned and gave me a boost of £4.23.

An excellent return on a £15.66 bet meaning my total now stands at £108.63

New Balance 108.63

Wednesday, 17 October 2007

Week 9: Making up for lost time

It took a successful International weekend to lighten the mood but finally the previous weekends disappointments have been laid to rest.

Losing money with Chelsea and missing out on the betting for the Man Utd v Wigan match was all forgotten after England's win v Estonia and the Rugby World Cup semi-final win against France.

Looking forward to this weekend, I now give me the chance to get back on a winning run.

I never would have thought that it could be possible, but Manchester City are starting to become a team I could consider backing. Their match v Birmingham is one that I fully expect City to win, however, we are only 9 games into the season and so I will not be getting carried away just yet.

The most predictable fixture is Arsenal v Bolton. Arsenal are on an amazing run and have won their last 10 matches.

Interestingly, this evening Sammy Lee left the Trotters 'by mutual consent' and so there is a chance that Bolton will play better than usual. However, Arsenal's current form should see them through against a side in the bottom 3.

15% on an Arsenal win is £15.66 - Come on you gooners!

Sunday, 7 October 2007

Week 8: Opportunities missed (2)

After the disaster last week from Chelsea drawing against Fulham I did not find any time at all to make bets this week as I have been organising a trip abroad.

Unfortunately, the likely matches (Man U v Wigan & Arseanl v Sunderland) both went to form, meaning I could have instantly retruned to winning ways.

If there is a silverlining, at least I did not lose any money this weekend!

I hope for similarly easy matches to predict on my return.

Balance, still £104.4

Wednesday, 3 October 2007

Week 7: Result - Disaster

The results had all been positive, the system seemed to good to be true, it was working.

But then I put a large stake on Chelsea to beat Fulham, and so lost £11.59 of my hard earned cash.

Looking back, I really should have known not to bet on it. Local derbies and betting on teams that have recently changed manager should be added to the rules as matches to steer clear of.

What I also failed to notice was that Chelsea had gone 3 matches without a win in the Premiership. A loss to Manu Utd was preceded by a draw with Man City and a further defeat at Aston Villa.

One of the factors I remember considering as I made my decision was that I had read that Chelsea had played some of their best football versus Man Utd.

Looking back, I realise the quote came from Avram Grant. Which leads me to add another rule to my system: 'Never trust the comments made by the team's manager'.

I must ensure that I remember the lessons learnt here, as the odds I bet on mean that I cannot afford many more mistakes.

New balance: £104.4