Thursday, 29 November 2007

Week 15: Red Devils to beat the Cottagers

My decision this week was to bet on either Liverpool or Man Utd for home wins.

Liverpool beat Porto 4-1 to make qualification for the latter rounds a strong possibility however the result was closer than the scoreline suggests and the match was level at 1-1 until the 78th minute. Playing on Sunday, the reds have just 3 days to recover before meeting Bolton.

Man Utd beat Sporting Lisbon on Tuesday to gurantee top spot in their Champions League group. It was a tight match and United left it late to get the winner. Luckily for them, their match with Fulham is not until Monday evening, giving them 5 days recovery time.

Both of the teams won their Champions League ties and neither had to travel anywhere for them.

The away sides this weekend, Bolton and Fulham, have equally poor away form with neither winning an away game yet, while they have managed a few draws each.

After much deliberation, my final choice is Man Utd because of the extra couple of days to recover and because Bolton may feel full of confidence due to their home win over the Champions last weekend.

Again, I am wary of Fulham, as they are the side that lost me money earlier in the season when they drew with Chelsea. However I have had success since when predicting their demise at Anfield.

To follow my rules strictly, I shouldn't be betting on a side in poor form. Man Utd lost a single match so I am not sure that it means they are in poor form, however it will be refelected in my reduced bet of 10% on the win rather than the usual 15%.

10% on a Man Utd win means £12.28 on a win for the Old Trafford outift.

Monday, 26 November 2007

Week 14: Results - Arsenal leave it late

Luckily, I was not tracking the results on Saturday as it would have been a nail-biting afternoon with Arsenal leaving it so late to score against Wigan.

The league leaders got two goals in the final 10 minutes to secure a win though and gave me a profit of £3.55 and the win takes my profits to highest total yet, £122.28.

Next week, their are three matches which I can consider, but none that stick out as exceptionally easy to predict.

Chelsea meet West Ham, Liverpool play a resurgent Bolton and Man Utd host Fulham.

The Chelsea match can be discounted because of the local derby element and Bolton would be a risky choice after their confidence boosting win against Man Utd this weekend.

This only leaves Man Utd versus Fulham. The reds lost to Bolton, however it will most probably spur them onto a much inproved performance against Fulham, expecially in front of their home fans.

I will wait to see how the teams fare in the Champions league before making any choices.

Balance £122.28

Thursday, 22 November 2007

Week 14: The Post Steve McLaren Era

The despair of last night’s England match is now a distant memory and I can concentrate on winning a profit this weekend.

It’s been 6 days since my last post and I didn’t even make a bet last time around and so I am desperate to have a go this week.

The first fixture in the list is a beauty. Wigan always struggle against the top teams in the Premiership and they meet a table-topping Arsenal side in superb form who have beaten all comers over the last few weeks. Some of the football they have been playing has been awesome.

It sounds as though Diaby and Flamini may have picked up injuries in the French international midweek however Robin Van Persie is now back in full training and could feature. Anyway, the Arsenal squad is strong enough to handle a couple of losses.

Therefore I will pile 15% of the account on a home win.

I forgot to post my balance last week, but I can assure you that after the Liverpool win over Fulham two weeks ago it had grown to £118.73.

That means a £17.80 bet on the Gooners to beat the Latics!

Wednesday, 14 November 2007

Week 13: Nothing Doing

This weekend's fixture's are the worst yet!

I don't feel confident betting on International matches as they are much less predictable than standard league matches in club football.

But unfortunately the main leagues (Premier/Championship/Scots Premier) are all on a break for the Internationals and in the leagues below, there isn't a single game I can find worth betting on.

Nottingham Forest and Carlisle aren't playing, Leeds have a tough match versus Swindon and in League 2, the top 3 sides, MK Dons, Hereford and Peterborough, are all away from home.

Ridiculously, in Scottish divisions 1, 2 and 3 each of the top two sides are playing each other, ruling out any predictable match-ups which I will take as a sign not to wager anything at all.

I will attempt to start thinking about the next set of matches on the 24th, if only to stop myself getting wound up by the English Euro Qualification issue that threatens to overshadow the weekend.

My two pence worth: Don't sack Steve McLaren unless there is someone better to replace him with.

Saturday, 10 November 2007

Week 12: Close Call

I spent the whole week deciding between 2 matches, both of which ended up being no where near being easy home wins. It seems that my mid-week worries were well justified.

Colchester held Watford to a 2-2 draw, with Marlon King having a penalty saved before scoring the equaliser minutes later.

Liverpool, the team I eventually backed, left it extremely late to beat Fulham. 2 goals in the final 10 minutes gave the home side the 3 points and gave my betting account another welcome boost.

I wasn't sure about the match and so I only made a 10% bet, which paid out £3.08. It's a small win but at least it is in the right direction.

I think this week is one that probably should have been avoided.

Week 12: Decision Time

I have found the choice this week extremely hard.

On the one hand I have Fulham, who messed up all my plans with a draw against Chelsea a few weeks ago and on the other I have Watford who are playing Colchester who managed to beat West Brom on the 20th of October.

Although I feel Colchester are very poor away from home, the gulf between the sides is much larger in the Premier League.

I am not totally confident of Liverpool's win though as they had a busy night in europe mid-week, so I will only place a 10% bet, meaning an £11.56 wager.

Come on you reds!

Wednesday, 7 November 2007

Week 12: The Reds or the Hornets?

This week, I am again struggling to find a match I can rely on in the Premier League.

The only top vs bottom fixture is Liverpool taking on Fulham at Anfield. Liverpool have looked strong at home this season and are in top form after thrashing Besiktas 8-0 in the Champions league yesterday.

Fulham are yet to win away from home, but they drew with Chelsea at Stamford bridge, my only loss so far this season.

Before the season began I would have thought that Tottenham v Wigan would have been an assured choice, but after the way things have gone at White Hart Lane, the two teams are now on the same number of points at the foot of the table.

I trawled through the other divisions and found virtually no top teams playing at home against weak oppostion. Watford v Colchester became interesting when I realised Colchester have lost their last 3 away matches, however Watford lost last week at home, although it was against rivals West Brom.

Even the scottish premier league has no certainties this weekend with the Old Firm at home to Aberdeen and away at Falkirk.

I will mull over Liverpool and Watford for a couple of days before making my decision.

Monday, 5 November 2007

Week 11: Results - Rangers beat Inverness

This weekend Glasgow Rangers held up their side of the bargain to earn me another win. The odds were not ideal, but I did claim exactly £4 profit from a bet of just over £16.

Of the other top sides, most only picked up 1 point this weekend, Man Utd v Arsenal was a thrilling match which ended in a 2-2 draw, more surprisingly Liverpool only managed a point at Blackburn, the game finishing 0-0. Two matches I rightly avoided.

In the football league, Leeds's 13 match unbeaten run came to an end at league leaders Carlisle Utd with the Yorkshire men going down 3-1.

Derby County's woes continued with loss at Aston Villa, although this project may not be able to capitalise as their next away match against a decent side is a long while off. They meet Man Utd at Old Trafford on the 8th of December.

The £4 made this week almost takes me to the same level I reached earlier. This time I will try to make sure I don't make another mistake.

New balance £115.65

Thursday, 1 November 2007

Rangers continue good form

This week, for the first time, I placed my bet before the midweek fixtures. This is something that I should probably try to avoid in the future, as if Rangers had been beaten by Motherwell last night, in the CIS cup, I may well have begun to regret backing them for a win at the weekend.

Luckily they won 2-1, away from home, and so go into the match against Inverness in good form.

Always waiting for the midweek matches to be played out could prove difficult though as matches such as the UEFA cup are played on Thursday evenings, leaving only Fridays and Saturday mornings to study the fixture list and decide on a team to back.

I suppose I could shortlist a few matches at the beginning of a week, then confirm my final choice on a Friday.

I am definitely thinking about this far too much.