Saturday, 22 December 2007

18 - Scottish Premier League Hopes

Upon closer inspection, the two matches I was considering, Charlton v Hull and Nottingham Forest v Port Vale, are not as clear as I first thought.

Both Hull and Port Vale have reasonable away records and could prove tough for their respective opponents. Therefore I will not be betting on either of their matches.

A match I hadn't spotted previously was hidden away in the Legaue Two fixtures. Chesterfield v Wrexham. Chesterfield are high in the table and pushing for promotion while Wrexham have been playing poorly and could find it very tough to get anything out of the match. However last week's home defeat to Rochdale means I won't be risking my money on the Saltergate side.

In the Scottish Premier league I usually only consider betting when the Old Firm meet a lowly relegation candidate but today I have found a potential wager outside of the Glasgow pair.

Dundee Utd have an excellent home record with six wins from eight matches and have only conceded two goals so far at home. Today they meet Gretna, who are rooted to the foot of the table and have only two points to show from there travels this season.

Gretna have recently taken points from Kilmarnock and Hearts, however the Orange side of Dundee should prove to be a much sterner test.

Merely because the Dundee side are not of the calibre which I usually bet on, I will bet only 10%of the account on this game.

This means a bet of £12.95 on a Dundee Utd victory.

Wednesday, 19 December 2007

18 - Christmas Football Fixture List

The fixtures lists are not giving me any Christmas cheer as yet. I am desperate to make a et this week after the dull weekend last time, finding one that meets my rules is turning out to be quite tough though.

This weekend Man Utd and Liverpool are both playing at home, but playing sides in good form, Portsmouth and Everton, who cannot be relied upon to roll over and let the big sides take the points.

Newcastle have started to get their house in order with a couple of recent wins, but I don't consider their form to be good enough to gurantee a win, even against bottom club Derby, and in the Scottish Premier league, it is more of the same with Celtic taking on Hibernian at home, however Hibs have played well this season and are currently 4th.

In the Championship there is one slightly interesting fixture with Charlton taking on Hull. The London side have a good home record and Hull's away form is not so hot.

Further down the footballing pyramid I did find a possible match to bet on, Nottingham Forest v Port Vale. Forest are currently 3rd and the Vale are lying in 22nd spot, only 3 points from the foot of the table.

In league two there is also the prospect for a win for 3rd placed Peterborough playing the 18th placed Bradford City.

To be honest though, the choices are not as easy as I'd like and so I'll have a think about these choices while finishing off my Christmas shopping before placing any bets.

Saturday, 15 December 2007

17: No suitable matches

I have decided against trawling through the European leagues for a suitable match as I don't know enough about the sides in question.

Plus of course, most of the big sides from each league were in action in the Champions League this week, which could mean some odd results.

Hopefully there will be some easier fixtures next time around.

Thursday, 13 December 2007

17: Grand Slam Sunday

The big four sides play each other on Sunday, meaning there are no matches that are easy to predict in the premier league.

In the Championship, Watford play mid-table Plymouth and West Brom and Charlton meet at the Hawthorns to fight for second place.

In Scotland, neither Rangers nor Celtic have a simple home match.

The same can be said for Swansea, Carlisle and Leeds in League 1, MK Dons, Peterborough and Darlington in League 2 AND Aldershot and Torquay in the Blue Square Premier.

Unless I can get some inspiration from a European league or lower Scottish division, it looks as though this week will be without a wager. Which is a shame after the success last week.

Monday, 10 December 2007

Week 16: Chelsea and Man Utd boost the coffers

It is strange that on the weekend where I chose to bet on two matches from the 'big four', the other two clubs which comprise the group lost their unbeaten runs.

However, the losers Arsenal and Liverpool, were both away from home and both have fixtures in the Champions league this week which could partly explain their losses.

Thankfully, the results of the matches I chose were never in doubt. Man Utd and Chelsea disposed of Derby and Sunderland respectively, although Derby County did strangely manage their first goal away from home at Old Trafford.

Because of the unlikeliness of a surprise, the odds I bet at were poor.

I got back winnings of only £1.43 for the Man Utd match and £2.51 from the Chelsea game.

This increases my total by £3.94.

New balance £129.52

Next week could be tough as it is Sky's so-called 'Grand Slam Sunday' where the big four meet each other.

Friday, 7 December 2007

Week 16: Two football matches to bet on

With two matches to choose between, this week has been the hardest of all to decide what to do.

Both seem obvious choices, but to actually pick one from the other has been very difficult to do.

Passing up the opportunity to bet on one of these matches also seems criminal, so I am going to bet on both of the games for a home win.

This will mean that I can spread the risk of my bet while also increasing my profit margin slightly.

I won't bet a full 15% on both matches because I don't want to risk all of the profit of my account in one weekend, however 10% on each seems a fair result.

£12.55 on Man Utd
£12.55 on Cheslea

Thursday, 6 December 2007

Week 16: Two Options

Since this project began I have never been blessed with 2 matches that look so easy to predict in a single weekend. Both Man Utd v Derby and Chelsea v Sunderland look like certain home wins to me.

The real decision is whether I should bet on one game or split my bet over the two. If either of these matches had been the only predictable match in a weekend, I would not have hesitated in betting 15% of the account on it. But if I bet on both, should it be 15% on each or just a less risky 10% to make a 20% stake overall.

Unfortunately, another arrangement which I would have enjoyed would have been to bet on one match, then, after weighing up the result, bet on the next match on Saturday evening. However both games are at 3pm on Saturday so it is not possible.

Before I get carried away though, I should consider the matches themselves. Man Utd and Chelsea are both playing well at home. They are currently second and third in the overall form tables and are both unbeaten at home. Man Utd have won an impressive 7 out of 8 at home but Chelsea only 4 out of their 7.

Derby County are in free fall, however they have recently changed their manager. which could be a telling factor. I remember Alan Curbishley's first game at West Ham last year when they beat Man Utd. But of course, they had home advantage for that match.

Chelsea haven't got the same all-conquering home form, however they have been much better since Avram Grant took over and seem to suit the more attacking style employed by the Israeli.

I will consider my options and make a judgment tomorrow of how I will play these 2 fixtures.

Monday, 3 December 2007

Week 15: Result - Win for Manchester United

Another £3.30 is added to the bank after Christiano Ronaldo bags a brace to put Man Utd into second place in the premiership.

By the match report, it sounds as though the Red Devil's strike force made hard work of killing off Fulham and they struggled to make long periods of pressure count, which is a worry for this blog, as it only takes a single match to upset weeks of hard work.

However, although I don't usually like to speculate on the following week's fixtures, Alex Ferguson will be glad that his misfiring strikers have a home match against Derby next Saturday, which could mean that they get plenty of shooting practice.

Derby have yet to win away from home, and in fact have not yet scored on their travels. Getting their first away points at Old Trafford surely isn't possible is it?

New balance: £125.58