Thursday, 6 December 2007

Week 16: Two Options

Since this project began I have never been blessed with 2 matches that look so easy to predict in a single weekend. Both Man Utd v Derby and Chelsea v Sunderland look like certain home wins to me.

The real decision is whether I should bet on one game or split my bet over the two. If either of these matches had been the only predictable match in a weekend, I would not have hesitated in betting 15% of the account on it. But if I bet on both, should it be 15% on each or just a less risky 10% to make a 20% stake overall.

Unfortunately, another arrangement which I would have enjoyed would have been to bet on one match, then, after weighing up the result, bet on the next match on Saturday evening. However both games are at 3pm on Saturday so it is not possible.

Before I get carried away though, I should consider the matches themselves. Man Utd and Chelsea are both playing well at home. They are currently second and third in the overall form tables and are both unbeaten at home. Man Utd have won an impressive 7 out of 8 at home but Chelsea only 4 out of their 7.

Derby County are in free fall, however they have recently changed their manager. which could be a telling factor. I remember Alan Curbishley's first game at West Ham last year when they beat Man Utd. But of course, they had home advantage for that match.

Chelsea haven't got the same all-conquering home form, however they have been much better since Avram Grant took over and seem to suit the more attacking style employed by the Israeli.

I will consider my options and make a judgment tomorrow of how I will play these 2 fixtures.

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