My decision this week was to bet on either Liverpool or Man Utd for home wins.
Liverpool beat Porto 4-1 to make qualification for the latter rounds a strong possibility however the result was closer than the scoreline suggests and the match was level at 1-1 until the 78th minute. Playing on Sunday, the reds have just 3 days to recover before meeting Bolton.
Man Utd beat Sporting Lisbon on Tuesday to gurantee top spot in their Champions League group. It was a tight match and United left it late to get the winner. Luckily for them, their match with Fulham is not until Monday evening, giving them 5 days recovery time.
Both of the teams won their Champions League ties and neither had to travel anywhere for them.
The away sides this weekend, Bolton and Fulham, have equally poor away form with neither winning an away game yet, while they have managed a few draws each.
After much deliberation, my final choice is Man Utd because of the extra couple of days to recover and because Bolton may feel full of confidence due to their home win over the Champions last weekend.
Again, I am wary of Fulham, as they are the side that lost me money earlier in the season when they drew with Chelsea. However I have had success since when predicting their demise at Anfield.
To follow my rules strictly, I shouldn't be betting on a side in poor form. Man Utd lost a single match so I am not sure that it means they are in poor form, however it will be refelected in my reduced bet of 10% on the win rather than the usual 15%.
10% on a Man Utd win means £12.28 on a win for the Old Trafford outift.