Week 4: So many choices...

This weekend has delivered several options for predictable home wins:

• Liverpool v Derby
• Man Utd v Sunderland
• Newcastle v Wigan
• Arsenal v Portsmouth

All 4 fixtures look likely, but which one to actually put my money on is another matter.

The Man Utd fixture has the extra spice of being Roy Keane's return to Old Trafford. I can't see Sunderland getting a draw but I don't want to risk betting against Keane and his fired-up team for this match.

Newcastle have started well and I expect them to grow under Sam Allardyce. However, they are not yet consistent enough for me to bet on. Plus of course, a winning goal from Titus Bramble would be the romantic result here. He took so much stick while at Newcastle, I imagine he'll be in the box for every free-kick and corner trying to get some revenge!

This leaves me with the choice between the Arsenal and Liverpool fixtures.

Arsenal and Liverpool are both very consistent winners at home, with Liverpool just edging it last season. They both have midweek european matches, however both squads are strong enough to cope.

The sides they face are Portsmouth and Derby. Derby, without a win so far, got a draw at Portsmouth on the opening day. Portsmouth have made a good start to the season and are improving. They drew with Man Utd and played well against Chelsea last weekend.

In midweek Derby were beaten by lowly Blackpool in the Carling Cup whereas Portsmouth beat Leeds 3-0. This could lower morale in Derby and they will struggle to pick themselves up for the trip to Anfield. Portsmouth could well be upbeat and may spring a surprise on Arsenal.

And so I will bet on Liverpool to beat Derby. 15% this time means a £16.13 bet.